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Prediction for CME (2025-01-04T15:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-01-04T15:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/36256/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a long duration C9.3-class flare near the vicinity of AR 3939 (S17W55) that begins at approximately 2025-01-04T14:30Z, seen to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. It can be seen across all GOES SUVI wavelengths, but is particularly prominent in GOES SUVI 284. | ARRIVAL NOTE: A very weak arrival/glancing blow signature detected by ACE and DSCOVR at L1, mainly characterized by an increase in solar wind speed from ~500 km/s to 630 km/s, accompanied by a slight increase in B-total and temperature, as well as an initial very slight increase in density followed by a minor drop in density. The B-field components at first display rapid fluctuation and corresponding slight increase in density to about 4.5cc, possibly indicating a small pileup, followed by a minor decrease in density to about 2cc and notably smoother rotation in the B-field components starting after 2025-01-07T12:00Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T04:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-01-07T18:14Z (-4.51h, +4.47h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2025/01/04 15:00Z
Plane of Sky 1: 21:00Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 00:30Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction
POS Difference: 3:30
POS Midpoint: 22:45Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:45

Numeric View/Impact Type: 1
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.71
Travel Time: ~9.71 * 7:45 = 75:14

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2025-01-07T18:14Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1 Hour
 - Travel Time Square Root: 50%

Notes:
Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5
Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh


Forecast Creation Time: 2025/01/04 22:20Z

Lead Time: 52.77 hour(s)
Difference: -14.23 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2025-01-04T23:14Z

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